How bad is the economy?

The more I read about the impact of the financial crisis in the UK, the more it feels that the UK is doomed economically, and that the best option now while you have cash in Great British Sterling is to cash out and move aborad to somewhere more financially sound - ie, not threatened with collapse by the weight of its own debt.

That may seem somewhat alarmist, but despite the claims of "green shoots" earlier in the year, we have not seen any signs that the economy is returning to normal. In fact, anything but, and that at best we're moving into a "lost decade" similar as to what happened to Japan.

Britain's debt to GDP is spiralling out of control, and even measures to reduce costs being mooted by Labour and the Conservatives are plain in their limitations - we are in far too much of a hole to be able to dig us out even within the next Parliament. It's going to take a full decade to even begin to expect to bring British debt to normality, and during this period, there is no reason to presume the economy will fare any better.

Repossessions continue to be high, insolvencies are expected to increase, and consumer debt is growing through credit cards and loans at a time when paying are supposedly paying off debt. Unemployment continues to increase in leaps and bounds (forget that's its slowing - double dip, people), and rather than help employers hire, the government is actually going to tax companies more for employing people.

In the meantime, ratings agencies expect at least a further 15% fall in house prices in the UK, and at a time when the market is limping forward, the FSA wants to bring in tougher rules on mortgages, while at the same time demanding banks hoard more cash.

And that's before we even get into the threats of deflation and unknown consequences of "Quantitive Easing".

The result of all these pieces in play can hardly be good for Britain - worsening debt, worsening access to credit, worsening consumer spending, falling asset prices, etc. The strategies in play may be different to Japan in the 90's, but the state of play is looking increasingly like it.

The problem, of course, is that while matters are exacerbated in the UK, these are afflictions across the world economy. So where is safe?

The answer is relative - the financial crisis is firmly rooted in the US and Europe, and while other areas have been impacted, their fundamantals have been far less knocked by comparison.

Asia remains strong and a bulwark so far against global financial collapse. While no doubt asset bubbles there are growing, they still don;t have the problem of being so invested in complex debt instruments that have so far crippled US and European banks.

In the meantime, now seems to be the moment to batten down the hatches or move on - economic power is clearly heading East, and to developing nations, and for those who remain, only the prophets of doom are left to comfort us.

Technical broadband problems

I don't normally write about technical issues. Though I can use computer technology, it all goes over my head and I don't have a clue how it all works.

I've come across an interesting problem while setting up my home office, though - wireless interference.

I was originally with BT as my ISP for broadband, but after previous problems with the company I decided quality of service was more important than price, so I moved to Zen Internet.

They sold me a Thomson TG784 router with the package, and all seemed to be running fine.

Until I bought a nice cordless phone, a Panasonic KX for the home office.

Both work very well and as required most of the time, but the problem is that whenever anybody rings, the broadband cuts out.

The result is quite annoying, especially as I keep getting sales calls from loan companies using autodiallers - which disconnects the internet every time, even when I pick up the phone on the first ring.

I've contacted Zen about the problem, but they haven't been much help at all. And I wouldn't expect much from Panasonic as the phone does exactly what is expected from it.

I was beginning to think I needed a different business broadband service. After all, there is a myriad of types to choose from - ADSL, SDSL, bonded broadband and even leased lines. And don't forget the satellite option!

Apparently, though, wireless interference is not all that uncommon.

The frustration is that if wireless interference is such a problem, then why is more effort not made by manufacturers to minimise the risk of it happening in

the first place?

This is especially when there appears to be quite a push to make much of home networking wireless.

It looks as though I will now have to look at changing my router to one that runs on a different frequency. which is obviously going to be cheaper than

having to get a new type of broadband installed.

It is still a pain, though. Still, I do not think I am the only one who has never got frustrated over a computer issue!

Searching for decent savings rates

One of the more highlighted features of the financial crisis is that savings rates have plummeted on savings accounts. Anyone who has diligently saved over the past few years now faces being punished by existing low interest rates for savers. However, now that the threat of financial collapse is receding, savers are reportedly worrying less about how safe their money is, as much as getting decent returns on savings. This is especially important because the volume of savings in the UK has actually gone up, even though many current accounts are paying little interest - with some even paying zero interest. However, there are still options for serious savers to get a decent rate of return on savings.

Firstly, there are still a number of UK accounts which will provide a return of around 4-5%, as recently highlighted in the Telegraph, plus ThisIsMoney lists a number of internet-based savings accounts which offer better savings returns. The problem is, many of these set limits in place for issues such as missed payments or withdrawal frequency, offer decent interest only for a limited period, or else have limited bonuses in place to boost the savings rate. The disappointment is compounded by the fact that building societies used to be more competitive on savings rates, but at present they seem more focused on longer-term savings such as cash ISA savings accounts and eBonds.

The second option is to go offshore - which may raise jitters for some after the crash of Icelandic banks at the end of last year. However, offshore accounts are still generally offering better rates than high street banks, even where the bank owns the offshore savings company. This is actually a key point, because in the case of UK-owned offshore banks at least, the savings are guaranteed by the parent bank. In other words, you're only likely to lose your money if the parent bank goes bust, but as we've seen with RBS and HBOS, any large UK bank will be propped up by the government.

There are a number of interesting comparisons worth checking up if considering going offshore - MoneyFacts and Money.co.uk both offer comparison charts. Unfortunately, the best rates being offered again seem to be bonds - in other words, locking up your savings for a specified number of years. At present an offshore bank account may offer a better savings rate than high street banks, but are still not as competitive as fixed term savings plans. Additionally, do be careful of risk - I noticed that a number of building societies offering particularly good rates, but do be aware that many of these had their ratings downgraded by Moodys. In the event of these building societies or banks going bust, or being nationalised, you may find yourself experiencing a lot of worry as to whether your money is protected or not.

Overall, the picture for savings remains pretty muted as you'd expect, but there are options available for improving the rate of return. The problem is that it mostly involves locking up savings for a fixed term of up to five years, which is not something savers really should have to consider. Additionally, despite the UK government's presence in the UK banking market via majority stakes in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group, ownership of Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley, they seem more interested in seeing the banks recapitalise, than provide any kind of real service to consumers. The result is that the tax payer hasn't simply paid to rescue these banks, we're also paying to rebuild them.

UK still faces economic downturn

This spring's green shoots are being increasing shown to have misplaced optimism, with economic conditions continuing to worsen within the UK - GDP continues to fall, and expectations of a recovery for next year remain muted.

While it's easy to just look at the UK in isolation, there are a couple of major economic pointers on the horizon that suggest the world's economy could suffer major set backs - even before a recovery has begun. And this is likely to bode ill for Britain, with existing downbeat expectations potentially proving to be optimistic if these factors play out.

The first is the credit bubble in China. So far, the Chinese economy has continued to grow strong - but it seems that rather than learn from the mistakes of the West, the Chinese are keen to repeat them. Yes, there's a credit bubble forming in the Chinese economy, as the government there encourages lending to such a degree that the IMF is already alarmed.

The second is the original engine of the credit crunch - the US real estate market. So far it has shown no real recovery, and what's worse, is that not only are repossessions (foreclosures) continuing to increase, they are not expected to peak until after August 2011, when the last big wave of ARMs - subprime mortgages - come up for renewal past their discount period.

These are not the only negative indicators - the IMF continues to warn that the world economy faces a deflationary spiral, that if borne out, could leave much of the West enduring an economic scenario equivalent to Japan's lost decades.

The UK has its own problems as well, not least due to the major debt bubble it's been sitting on for the past few years (it's not simply about house prices anymore). Lending in the UK is still suffering, with a mass withdrawal from the personal loans market, and such poor lending to business by the banks that Alaister Darling is now having to try and appear to be doing something about it. In the meantime, the IMF is warning that the UK's credit card debt could be crippling.

Any suggestion of an improving mortgage market should be taken in context of the fact that Spring and summer are traditionally the peak season - and what we've seen so far is still weak.

In short, economic conditions in the world remain fragile, but there are no positive indicators at present to suggest we're past the worst of it - anything but. There are still major dangers on the horizon, which leave little room for optimism for future economic conditions.

Financial markets still in turmoil

A lot of interesting stories coming up today, showing the continuing turmoil in the financial world.

First up, Edmund Conway claims the recession is over, which is about as optimistic as you can get.

Much of this unfounded optimism seems focused on the fact that the property market has seen a positive bounce over this spring - mortgage lending is up, buyer enquiries are up, and the DCLG reported a 1.1% rise in house prices over April.

The problem is, spring has always been prime home buying time, so to extrapolate this into some form of economic recovery seems absurd. It really does look like a bounce, which means we should expect economic conditions to get a lot worse towards the winter - as the property market traditionally cools.

In the meantime, other economic indicators are looking increasingly adverse.

We've seen repeated claims that the European banks have not properly written down their losses. In the meantime, Eastern Europe looks like it could crash and drag a lot of Europe down with it through a chain reaction. Latvia is already in big trouble and could be the smoking gun to bring the rest of Eastern Europe down with it, and a number of central European banks with them. And that's before we address the issue of existing write-downs the ECB is already severely worried about.

In the meantime, here in the UK, the whole banking sector continues to reshuffle in order to try and adapt to what still remains a crisis.

RBS is looking to split off business deals it claims as "unprofitable" into a separate group - in the meantime, as if the market hadn't already got itself into trouble creating complex debt instruments, this is exactly what is being proposed to get the UK taxpayer money back from semi-nationalised banks such as the RBS and Lloyds Group.

Among the building societies, the government is looking to allow changes to how they fund themselves in mass markets, in order to stop a repeat of the Dunfermline Building society crash. This is not least because others, not least the West Bromwich Building Society and others are also believed to be on the brink of collapse.

The Nationwide Building Society has already raised its mortgage rates sharply this week, close on the heels of other increases in mortgage rates last month. While the Nationwide remained one of the cheapest mortgage providers around, it no longer appears to be trying to outcompete other mortgage lenders.

If anything, the entire financial world still seems to be on a downward spiral. While the potential collapse of the banking sector appears to have been averted - certainly for now - the global economic picture is anything but healthy.

Stay tuned.

Nationwide criticism unfair

It's unfair to see the recent criticisms of the Nationwide Building Society's changes to its mortgage rates.

Yes, it's unfortunate that the Nationwide will no longer be putting new borrowers on it's existing Base Mortgage Rate (BMR), currently at 2.5% - but let's face it, the Nationwide has been pushing harder than any other mortgage lender to continue to provide mortgages to the market.

And no other mortgage lender was even coming close to beating Nationwide's BMR.

Despite the fact that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax, Bank of Scotlant, and Loyds TSB, all have direct government support through part-privatisation.

This is not least receiving government money with the aim of improving lending to to mortgage and loans market.

And yet RBS, HBOS, and Lloyds are still charging very uncompetitive rates, as if they are making a particular effort not to lend, and instead just hoard the government's funding.

So it's left to a mutual like the Nationwide Building Society to offer the cheapest mortgages, the cheapest loans, and even the lowest fees on credit card use.

And then when the Nationwide finally decides it needs to move new customers onto a new higher mortgage rate - one more comparative to rates offered by Barclays and HSBC, and still cheaper than RBS, HBOS or Lloyds, some journalists think this worthy of strong criticism?


I used to be a financial advisor for a living so I like to think I can recognise a quality deal, and so far that is exactly what Nationwide have been delivering on - far more than any government-supported bank.

Nationwide have been leading the market in trying to allow responsible people to borrow responsibly.

If a small increase in rates on just one of their products for just new borrowers is deserving of such criticism, then I can only wonder why these journalists haven't been more condemning of the lousy rates being offered by traditional high street banks.

Car insurance fraud on the rise

One of the lesser reported stories to make the news during this economic crisis is the issue of increasing fraud and avoidance hitting the insurance industry.

While there's little call to be unduly sympathetic to insurers, it remains a concern to all consumers because policy premiums are simply increased to pay for the costs of fraud, which hits everybody.

In this month alone we've seen a couple of different stories come up on this. On the one hand, is the frightening statistic that police are now seizing 460 uninsured vehicles per day. That's well over 150,000 vehicles per year. And the figure appears to be increasing because some people think they can no longer afford their car insurance, and so drive without any protection. Which is mad when you think of the possible costs and impact on work of having your car towed away.

On the other hand, a general escalation of insurance fraud, not least among car insurance claims. It seems that drivers are either trying not to pay on their insurance, or else trying to play it to pay for other costs.

It's important to realise that car insurance isn't a luxury - it's a necessity, and for protecting the driver's interests at that.

While most accidents in the UK are not fatal, there are still more than 8 deaths on the road each day. And even seemingly minor injuries such as whiplash are renown for the potential to develop into a more debilitating medical condition.

In either instance of injury or death in a car accident, the insurance isn't going to heal wounds or resurrect - but at least it can pay for costs, for repairing or replacing the vehicle, paying for extra medical expenses, and many have a built in death policy which can help protect income and inheritance for dependents.

In the meantime, I'm currently running a car insurance policy with Nationwide, but I'm very close to being eligible for the over-50 discounts with Saga. As I've iterated before, though, don't try and save money trying to get the cheapest car insurance, but instead look for one that gives you all the cover you need.

After all, where's the point of saving a few pounds, if in the event of a claim, it can cost you a lot more in expenses, lost time, and lost income, by having the wrong policy?